March 28, 2006
US mortgage bonds becoming risk prone

Mortgagers lend money to customers for acquiring homes, but they do not continue to hold these loan portfolios for the entire term of the mortgage. If they did, they would run out of capital to lend more. Most of these loans end up being clubbed and issued as bonds, which helps mortgagers raise more capital and continue being in business.

These mortgage bonds are now becoming risk prone due to an uncertain realty market. If realty prices begin to fall and the property market collapses, loan defaults will go up. An increased number of loan defaults will lead to a loss in the face value of the bonds and will lead to higher than expected losses for bondholders. According to the latest report by the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), ‘extension of loans to households with less than perfect credit histories had exposed investors to higher risks’.

The higher level of risk, resulting from a spree of lending to customers with less than perfect credit scores as well as exotic type of loans, was till now was not evident because of a strong appreciation in property prices. However, with the prices expected to cool, the overexposure is becoming more evident.

With interest rates having risen substantially and expected to rise further, homeowners may be unable to afford higher payouts leading to defaults.  This coupled with lower realty prices will not allow mortgagers to recover sufficient capital from the sale of these properties and mortgage bondholders stand to loose substantially under these circumstances.







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